{"id":1139,"date":"2010-05-29T07:49:38","date_gmt":"2010-05-29T11:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/?p=1139"},"modified":"2010-05-29T07:49:38","modified_gmt":"2010-05-29T11:49:38","slug":"world-cup-forecast-pool-with-a-twist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2010\/05\/29\/world-cup-forecast-pool-with-a-twist\/","title":{"rendered":"World Cup Forecast Pool, with a Twist"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"The Brazilian Society of Operations Research<\/a> is organizing a competition <\/a>for predicting the results of the group stage at the upcoming World Cup<\/a>.\u00a0 If you have to ask for which sport, you probably aren’t the target audience:\u00a0 it is for football (aka soccer).\u00a0 Many sites have such pools for many sports:\u00a0 for US college basketball, the OR blogs are practically given over to the topic every March.<\/p>\n

This competition is a bit different though:\u00a0 you aren’t allowed to simply guess the winners of each game.\u00a0 First, you need to give probabilities of win, loss or tie, with scoring based on squared errors.\u00a0 Second, you need to use some sort of model to generate the predictions, and be willing to describe that model.\u00a0 And no fair modifying your results to better fit your own ideas!\u00a0 You need to stick to the model’s predictions.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There are three subcompetitions, with track A allowing fewer types of information than track B, and track C limited to members of the Brazilian OR society.<\/p>\n

There is quite a bit of past data on the players and teams, so perhaps it is possible to create useful models.\u00a0 I look forward to seeing the results.\u00a0 Deadline for entries is June 7, with games starting June 11.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Brazilian Society of Operations Research is organizing a competition for predicting the results of the group stage at the upcoming World Cup.\u00a0 If you have to ask for which sport, you probably aren’t the target audience:\u00a0 it is for football (aka soccer).\u00a0 Many sites have such pools for many sports:\u00a0 for US college basketball, … Continue reading “World Cup Forecast Pool, with a Twist”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challenges","category-sports"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}