{"id":1567,"date":"2012-01-01T16:39:14","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T20:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/?p=1567"},"modified":"2012-01-01T16:39:14","modified_gmt":"2012-01-01T20:39:14","slug":"operations-research-resolutions-for-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2012\/01\/01\/operations-research-resolutions-for-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"Operations Research Resolutions for 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is the time of the year for resolutions. \u00a0Resolutions help define what we would like to be, but are damned hard things to follow through on. \u00a0As Paul Rubin points out<\/a>, gyms will be overrun for a few weeks with “resolvers” (or, as my former personal trainer called them “resolutionists”) before the weight room empties again. \u00a0I’ve been as guilty as any in this regard: \u00a0it is no coincidence that my gym membership runs January 15-January 15 and that I renew it each year with the best intents, and the worst results. \u00a0Paul suggests an OR view of resolutions:<\/p>\n

…the New Year’s resolution phenomenon offers a metaphor for O. R. practice. The “resolver” diets, exercises, stops smoking or whatever for a while because the “boss” (their conscience) is paying attention.\u00a0 When the “boss” stops watching, the “resolver” makes excuses for why the new regime is too difficult, and reverts to previous behavior.\u00a0 An O. R. solution to a business problem that is implemented top-down, without genuine commitment by the people who actually have to apply the solution (and change behaviors in doing so), is likely to end up a transient response leading to a return to the previous steady state.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So, in keeping with an operations research view of resolutions, I’ve been thinking about my resolutions with a particular focus on variables (what choices can I make), constraints (what are the limits on those choices) and objectives (what I am trying to accomplish). \u00a0It does no good to define objectives and go willy-nilly off in those directions without also defining the constraints that stop me from doing so. \u00a0 But, of course, a creative re-definition or expansion of variables might let me find better solutions.<\/p>\n

I have personal resolutions, and take inspiration from people around me who are able to transform themselves (yes, BB, I am talking about you!). \u00a0But I also have some professional resolutions. \u00a0So, here they are, and I hope they have been improved by an operations research view:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Make time for research. \u00a0This might seem to be a funny resolution: \u00a0isn’t that a big part of what professors do? \u00a0Unfortunately, I have taken an administrative role, and there is a never-ending list of things to do. \u00a0 \u00a0Short term, it seems if I will be a better Associate Dean if I get on with the business of Associate Deaning, but long-term I know I will be a better Associate Dean if I keep active in research. \u00a0The decision model on time allocation has to be long term, not short term.<\/li>\n
  2. Do what makes me happiest. \u00a0But where will the time come from? \u00a0I need to stop doing some things, and I have an idea of what those are. \u00a0I have been very fortunate in my career: I’ve been able to take part in the wide varieties of activities of a well-rounded academic career. \u00a0Not all of this gives me equal pleasure. \u00a0Some aspects (*cough* journals *cough*) keep me up at night and are not my comparative advantage. \u00a0So now is the time to stop doing some things so I can concentrate on what I like (and what I am comparatively good at). \u00a0While many of my decisions in my life can be made independently, time is a major linking constraint.<\/li>\n
  3. Work harder at getting word out about operations research. \u00a0This has not been a great year for this blog with just 51 posts. \u00a0I don’t want to post just for the sake of posting, but I had lots of other thoughts that just never made it to typing. \u00a0Some appeared as tweets<\/a>, but that is unsatisfying. \u00a0Tweets are ephemeral while blog entries continue to be useful long after their first appearance. \u00a0This has been a major part of my objective function, but I have been neglecting it.<\/li>\n
  4. Truly embrace analytics and robustness. \u00a0While “business analytics” continues to be a hot term, I don’t think we as a field have truly internalized the effect of vast amounts of data in our operations research models. \u00a0There is still too much a divide between predictive analytics and prescriptive analytics. \u00a0Data miners don’t really think of how their predictions will be used, while operations researchers still limit themselves to aggregate point estimates of values that are best modeled as distributions over may, predictable single values. \u00a0 Further,\u00a0operations research models often create fragile solutions. \u00a0Any deviation from the assumptions of the models can result in terrible situations. \u00a0A flight-crew schedule is cheap to run until a snowstorm shuts an airport in Chicago and flights are cancelled country-wide due to cascading effects. \u00a0How can we as a field avoid this “curse of fragility”? \u00a0And how does this affect my own research? \u00a0Perhaps this direction will loosen some constraints I have seen \u00a0as I ponder the limits of my research agenda.<\/li>\n
  5. Learn a new field. \u00a0While I have worked in a number of areas over the years, most of my recent work has been in sports scheduling. \u00a0I started in this are in the late 90s, and it seems time to find a new area. \u00a0New variables for my decision models!<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    OK, five resolutions seems enough. \u00a0And I am not sure I have really embraced an operations research approach: \u00a0I think more constraints are needed to help define what I can do, my objective is ill-defined, and even my set of variables is too self-limited. \u00a0But if I can make a dent in these five (along with the eight or so on my personal list) then I will certainly be able to declare 2012 to be a successful year!<\/div>\n

    Happy New Year, everyone, and I wish you all an optimal year.<\/p>\n

    This entry is part of the current INFORMS Blog Challenge<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It is the time of the year for resolutions. \u00a0Resolutions help define what we would like to be, but are damned hard things to follow through on. \u00a0As Paul Rubin points out, gyms will be overrun for a few weeks with “resolvers” (or, as my former personal trainer called them “resolutionists”) before the weight room … Continue reading “Operations Research Resolutions for 2012”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-personal","category-research"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1567\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mat.tepper.cmu.edu\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}