Simulation and the NHL playoffs

Growing up in Winnipeg, Canada (city motto: “At least it is a dry cold”), I had a short and rather forgettable hockey career (though getting a shutout as a goalie at 12 years old remains one of my favorite memories). I have been greatly outdone by my nephew Mathieu, who actually looks like he knows what he is doing when facing a shot. Since then, I follow hockey mainly through my local team, the Pittsburgh Penguins. I have been lucky to see a number of amazing players on the Penguins: Lemieux, Jagr, and “Sid the Kid” Crosby perhaps best of all. I keep hoping to provide the schedule for the NHL, which I think is the only thing that would impress my buddies back in Winnipeg.

Armann Ingolfsson of the University of Alberta has appeared in an article in the Toronto Sun on using simulation to predict who will make the playoffs this year. You can read a more detailed description of what he does in an article published in the INFORMS Transactions on Education in 2004. The main idea is to use simulation to generate 500 possible continuations of the regular season and to determine how often every team makes the playoffs. A critical feature of this is the ability to assign probabilities of wins for every game.

I am very happy to see that the Penguins currently have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. But the system doesn’t take into account that Crosby has a “high ankle sprain” keeping him out for two months.  That might knock off a percentage point or two.