Sokol and teams’ Logistic Regression/Markov Chain approach had a pretty good first round in the NCAA tournament. It correctly picked 24 of the 32 games. On the plus side, it picked the following upsets (NCAA seeds in parens):
Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV (8), Georgia Tech (10) over Oklahoma State (7), Murray State (13) over Vanderbilt (4), Old Dominion (11) over Notre Dame (6), St. Mary’s (10) over Richmond (7)
It incorrectly predicted upsets
San Diego State (11) over Tennessee (6), Florida State (9) over Gonzaga (8), Utah State (12) over Purdue (4)
It missed the upsets
Ohio (14) over Georgetown (3), Missouri (10) over Clemson (7), Washington (11) over Marquette (6), Cornell (12) over Temple (5), Wake Forest (9) over Texas (8)
Overall, favorites (higher seeds) only won 22 of the 32 first round games, so in that sense LMRC is doing better than the Selection Committee’s rankings. 3 of LRMC’s “Sweet Sixteen” have been eliminated but they are still fine for the round of eight on.
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